Walt Rubel Commentary: Trade war would hit this region hard

In 2007 I accompanied then-Gov. Bill Richardson on a trade mission to Chihuahua, Mexico. I wasn’t the only one. Business owners from throughout the state also made the trip south to negotiate deals with business owners in Mexico.

Until that trip, I didn’t understand the importance of international trade to our state, especially southern New Mexico.

According to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, New Mexico exported a record $12 billion in goods in 2024, supporting an estimated 14,000 jobs in our state. There were 1,332 different companies that exported products out of New Mexico, with the vast majority of those being small and medium-sized businesses.

Not surprisingly, Mexico is by far our most important trade partner, with $7 billion in exports in 2024. But we also had $2 billion in exports to China, $1.5 billion to Malaysia, $255 million to Taiwan and $215 million to Vietnam.

Agricultural exports from New Mexico accounted for $910 million in trade in 2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Dairy products led the way with $215 million in exports, followed by tree nuts with $203 million.

The United States leads the world in pecan production, with an estimated 115,000 metric tons a year, according to the group Southern Ag Today. Georgia is the top producer, but New Mexico is a close second. Mexico is the largest pecan importer, followed by Canada and the European Union.

During the trade mission to Chihuahua, I had a chance to tour an auto manufacturing plant that was as modern and efficient as anything we have in our country. The woman who had moved from Michigan to Mexico to manage the plant explained the complex network of manufacturers and suppliers in multiple countries that all played a role in the final product.

Maybe that was a mistake. The North American Free Trade Act of 1994 has led to greater efficiency for businesses and lower prices for customers, but it also caused manufacturing jobs to be shipped to other countries with lower labor costs.

With the benefit of 21 years hindsight, it is worth having the academic debate as to whether NAFTA was a success. But it is folly to believe that networks created over two decades can be shattered overnight without enormous damage to our economy and our standard of living.

We’re still in the bluster phase of our current trade war. On April 9 the administration put a 90-day pause on a raft of tariffs that were cobbled together so haphazardly that they included sanctions against an uninhabited island. Now we’re told the master dealmaker is working his magic.

Like everybody else in the rest of the world, I have no idea what will eventually emerge from this. I understand the argument for tariffs. The reason pecan exports to China have fallen is because of tariffs imposed by that nation.

There is a case to be made for targeted, measured tariffs needed to level the playing field. But, if the goal is to undo NAFTA and return to a post-war era of booming industrialization, we’d be better off investing in a time machine.

With economists now predicting a recession, it’s clear that these tariffs will be bad for the nation. They will be worse for New Mexico, and devastating to southern New Mexico.


Walt Rubel can be reached at [email protected] 

Listen to the audio version