Walt Rubel Commentary: AI brings fatalism to a new generation

There were two emergency drills conducted at the start of each new school year during my childhood, the fire drill and the duck-and-cover drill.

For the fire drill, we were instructed to calmly and quietly line up behind the teacher and then walk at a leisurely pace down the hallway, around the corner and then down another hallway before reaching the door, all while flames were lapping at our pants legs.

The duck-and-cover drill was for when the Ruskies dropped the big one. We were taught to curl up in a ball underneath our desk, presumably to make it easier to identify the bodies afterward.


Looking back on it now, I can see there was a cloud of fatalistic doom that hovered over our nation during my childhood. Tensions with the Soviet Union were so great that nuclear annihilation almost seemed inevitable.


The made-for-TV film “The Day After” in 1983 gave us all a first-hand glimpse at what that experience would look and feel like. It was watched by more than 100 million people.


We came close during the Reagan administration. And, obviously, it is far too soon to say the threat has passed, But, nuclear warfare is not a concern for most students today. Artificial Intelligence leading to nuclear annihilation is.


The conventional wisdom in the United States is that we are in an AI race against China that is similar to Oppenheimer's rush to beat Nazi Germany to the atomic bomb. Whoever gets there first will achieve not only an economic advantage but also military dominance. And so, any kind of government regulation that will slow our progress and put us at a competitive disadvantage must be dismissed.


Most of us have seen enough science fiction movies to fear what happens when the machines take over. A recent study by Kings College London found that in simulated war games, AI used the threat of nuclear escalation at least 95 percent of the time. Which makes sense if the only goal is to win. I don’t know how we program in the fear and trepidation that would cause a human to think twice about the consequences of that action.


A recent Yahoo/YouGov survey found that 53 percent of Americans believe that it is either “somewhat likely” or “very likely” that AI will destroy humanity; and 63 percent believe it will eventually become too powerful to control.


According to a recent column in the New York Times by Jacob Dreyer, an American living in Shanghai, China has taken a different approach. Instead of viewing everything through the lens of military readiness, it has worked to incorporate AI into daily activities like shopping, transportation and education.


Being a Luddite at heart, a part of me wishes this would all just go away. But I know for certain that it won’t. Technology always presses forward.


But there needs to be regulation and coordination. Thus far, our aging Congress has looked on with bewilderment at the dawning of this new technical age. They must educate themselves quickly, and we must oust those who are unwilling or incapable.


Our future relies on it. Which is cause for a bit of fatalistic thinking.


Walter Rubel can be reached at [email protected]

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